Article by Ahmad Hassam
If you are a currency trader and focus on the four major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY, then you should consider yourself a specialist in USD. Yes, its true! You are a specialist in trading the greenback.
Each currency pair actually consists of two currencies. So if you take a long position in GBP/USD then you are in fact buying British Pound and selling US Dollar. In each of the four major currency pairs, US Dollar is one currency of each pair.
This means that you should study and understand the fundamentals that drive the US Dollar and the US economy. You should also understand the workings of the Federal Reserve System (FED). Then you have done your homework. Now you can trade any one of the four major currency pairs as all of them depend on USD.
These four major currency pairs are the most liquid pairs in the forex markets. They involve the vast majority of the currency trading. You should think like this. Majors are the most heavily traded pairs and US Dollar is half of each major pair. So if you can understand what drives the USD, it will have a huge impact on your trading plans.
The only thing you need to determine is your bias for USD. What do you think; USD will weaken or strengthen in the near and medium term. Then apply that bias to the major currency pairs.
Just to remind you when you buy a currency pair, you are buying the first currency in the pair and selling the second currency. Suppose your form a bias that US Dollar is going to become stronger. With this bias, you can go long either on USD/CHF or USD/JPY. Similarly, you can go short either on GBP/USD or EUR/USD.
With one bias, you have the potential of entering into four possible trades. However, each currency pair will react differently to US Dollar strengthening or weakening. Suppose Euro is also strengthening. Both Euro and US Dollar are strengthening at the same time. The currency pair EUR/USD will move less. USD/JPY will move more if JPY is weakening and USD is strengthening.
Lets say you can only afford to trade one standard lot. You have a bearish bias for USD. You can consider going long on either GBP/USD or EUR/USD. What pair you should trade? Which one!
Take a look at both GBP and the Euro. Try to find which of the two currencies is stronger right now. Trade the stronger currency. Take a look at the cross EUR/GBP. If it is down, it means EUR is weakening and GBP is strengthening. Trade GBP/USD!
You should always include an evaluation of the currency correlations for the major currency pairs in every trading plan that you create. The correlations between the currency pairs are dynamic and can change any time. So you need to calculate the correlations at least on weekly basis to give you a fair idea. Correlation is determined by what is known as the correlation coefficient. Correlation coefficient always ranges between +1 and -1.
About the Author
Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Find the best Forex Robot. Watch the video as this robot turns ,000 into ,715 in just one month. Try this cash printing Forex Signal Service from heaven.
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